Most mobile broadband operators do not need to be reminded that their traffic volumes are rising fast. On a daily basis they face a wide range of network and service implications from the steady growth in the average traffic per user (ATPU), in particular from smartphone users. Smartphone use continues to account for a significant and growing percentage of data traffic traversing mobile networks, a not surprising yet daunting fact when one remembers that smartphone penetration rates remain relatively low in most countries. A recent report from Nielsen serves as yet another reminder of what is now accepted as common industry wisdom - consumers with smartphones (and in particular Android and Apple iOS-based devices) exhibit data-intensive usage, with app downloads, streaming media, and video/mobile TV dominating consumption behavior.
Nielsen's recent snapshot from the U.S. market suggests that we are already well down the path toward the 2015 estimate of 776 MB/month ATPU for smartphone subscribers that Informa Telecoms & Media projected back in November 2010. With fast-paced innovation in mobile devices and subscribers' seemingly insatiable demand for rich media, in particular video, there is every reason to believe that the ATPU in 2015, in North America and worldwide, may in fact exceed industry projections, including the estimates many operators are currently using for business modeling and network dimensioning exercises.
In another industry view issued this week, Cisco's mid-decade scenario predicts an unquestionably important milestone: the cross-over point at which wireless IP traffic exceeds wireline IP traffic. According to Cisco, that tipping point will take place in 2015, with wireless traffic edging wireline traffic by an estimated 54% to 46% respectively.
Coupled with the disproportionate impact of elephant users on mobile data consumption, which we've discussed in previous blog posts, these trends reinforce the need for innovative traffic optimization strategies, as capacity expansion alone will not solve the fundamental challenges operators face as congestion increasingly threatens network performance, service quality, and profitability.